Development of GDP

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In the 4th quarter of 2024, seasonally adjusted GDP increased, up 0.2% quarter on quarter in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU. For comparison, an increase of 0.4% had been observed in the 3rd quarter in both the euro area and the EU.

Situation in the EU countries

Based on the latest quarter-on-quarter rates of change, GDP increased in the 4th quarter of 2024 in 21 countries, remained stable in 2 and decreased in 4. Ireland (up 3.6%) recorded the largest increase of GDP. The decreases were observed in Malta (down 0.7%), Austria (down 0.4%), Germany (down 0.2%) and France (down 0.1%).

Situation in non-EU countries

Compared with the previous quarter, GDP expanded in the 4th quarter of 2024 in China (up 1.6%), Japan, the United States (both up 0.6%) and Switzerland (up 0.2%), while it contracted in Norway (down 0.6%) and Iceland (down 1.4%). (*) See latest estimates for more data.

Industrial production

In February 2025, seasonally adjusted industrial production increased month on month by 1.1% in the euro area and by 1.0% in the EU. In the previous month, there had been increases of 0.6% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU.

Production in construction

In January 2025, seasonally adjusted production in construction increased 0.2% in the euro area and decreased 0.2% in the EU compared with the previous month. In the previous month, it had increased 0.4% in the euro area and 0.7% in the EU.

Retail trade

In February 2025, the seasonally adjusted volume of sales in retail trade increased compared with the previous month in the euro area (up 0.3%) and in the EU (up 0.2%), following on from no change in the previous month in the euro area and an increase of 0.1% in the EU.

Inflation

Situation in the euro area and the EU

According to the latest data from Eurostat, the annual inflation rate (based on the HICP) in the euro area was 2.2% in March 2025, down from 2.3% in the previous month. In the EU, annual inflation was 2.5% in March 2025, down from 2.7% in the previous month. Situation in the EU countries

The highest annual inflation rates (based on the HICP) in March 2025 were recorded in Romania (up 5.1%) and Hungary (up 4.8%). The lowest inflation rate was recorded in France (up 0.9%).

Situation in non-EU countries

In March 2025, the annual inflation rate was 3.4% in Iceland, 2.3% in Norway, 0.1% in Switzerland and -0.7% in China. In February 2025, the rate was 3.7% in Japan, while in December 2024 it was 2.6% in the United States.

Total unemployment

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In February 2025, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.1% in the euro area, down slightly from 6.2% in the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 5.7%, down from 5.8% in the previous month.

Situation in the EU countries

In February 2025, the lowest unemployment rates were recorded in Poland (2.6%), Czechia and Malta (both 2.7%). The highest rates were in Spain (10.4%), Finland (9.2%), Sweden (8.9%) and Greece (8.6%).

Situation in non-EU countries

The unemployment rate in February 2025 was 4.1% in the United States, 3.8% in Norway and 2.4% in Japan. In January 2025, the unemployment rate was 3.6% in Iceland, while in December 2024 it was 4.5% in Switzerland.

Youth unemployment

In February 2025, the youth unemployment rate (for people aged 15–24 years) was 14.2% in the euro area, up from 14.1% in the previous month. In the EU, the rate was 14.5%, down from 14.6% in the previous month.

Economic sentiment indicator

Situation in the euro area and the EU

In March 2025, the economic sentiment indicator decreased, down 1.1 points in the euro area and 0.9 points in the EU: the index level was 95.2 points in the euro area and 96.0 points in the EU. The decrease in the euro area resulted from decreases in confidence among consumers and among construction, retail and services managers outweighing an increase in confidence among industrial managers.

Situation in the EU countries

In March 2025, the economic sentiment indicator showed a balanced upward and downward development among the EU countries, increasing in 12, unchanged in 2 and decreasing in 13. The strongest increase was in Malta (up 14.1 points), while the strongest decreases were in Sweden (down 3.0 points) and Luxembourg (down 2.9 points). The index level of the economic sentiment indicator (with a long-term average = 100) varied from 89.4 points in Germany to 109.2 points in Malta.

Employment expectations indicator

In March 2025, the employment expectations indicator decreased (down 0.7 points compared with the previous month) to 96.7 in the euro area; expectations decreased (down 0.7 points) to 97.7 in the EU. The decrease in the euro area in March 2025 was due to more pessimistic employment plans among retail managers combined with less optimistic plans among construction and services managers outweighing less pessimistic plans among industrial managers.

€-coin

The €-coin decreased to 0.25 in March 2025 (according to the latest release of the National Bank of Italy on 3 April 2025). The indicator was influenced by worsening consumer confidence and the weakening of the qualitative indicators for services.

Business climate indicator

The business climate indicator for the euro area rose marginally to -0.73 points in March 2025 (up from -0.75 points in the previous month).

Coincident indicators

The growth cycle coincident indicator (GCCI) was 0.05 in March 2025, indicating an expansion phase for the euro area economy. In the same month, the business cycle coincident indicator (BCCI) was 0.00, confirming the absence of any recessionary signals.

The GCCI and BCCI are synthetic indicators which are experimental in nature and calculated for Eurostat’s business cycle clock. The GCCI shows the probability of a slowdown in the economy and signals the peaks and troughs of the growth cycle, while the BCCI shows the probability of a recession and signals the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. The probability is given on a scale from 0 to 1.

Read more about the methodology in the Statistics Explained article about the business cycle clock.

DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator

The DZ BANK’s Euro-Indikator was relatively stable, increasing 0.18% month on month to 97.43 points in March 2025. This followed a slightly larger increase (up 0.33%) in the previous month. When compared with the same month in the previous year, the Euro-Indikator was 1.59% higher in March 2025.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the euro area, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly GDP in current prices for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the monthly industrial production index for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters:

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.

Trend-cycle estimates

This graph shows the quarterly employment in thousand people for the EU, together with trend-cycle decompositions.

A trend-cycle decomposition method aims at further decomposing seasonally adjusted data into a trend component and a cyclical component (expressed as the deviation from the trend).

The trend provides information on longer-term movements in the seasonally adjusted series over several years; the cycle is a sequence of smoother fluctuations around the longer-term trend, in part characterised by alternating periods of expansion and contraction.

You can choose to show the estimates using three different filters.

• Hodrick-Prescott (HP): a filter widely used in macroeconomics to fit a smooth curve through a set of points.
• Christiano-Fitzgerald (CF): a well-known approximation to an ideal band pass filter, estimated non-parametrically.
• Unobserved Components (UC): a parametric approach which involves estimating a statistical model and decomposing the series into components, including the trend and cycle.

Read more in the methodological note.